The link between premarital partners and divorce rate has shifted in surprising ways, according to a 2016 analysis by sociologist Nicholas H. Wolfinger from the University of Utah. While societal acceptance of premarital sex has increased, the study found a counterintuitive trend: for women who married in the 2000s and 2010s, having 10 or more premarital partners is linked to the highest risk of divorce within five years.
This finding, which analyzes data from the U.S. National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), reveals a complex and changing relationship between sexual experience and marital stability.
The new trend in premarital partners and divorce rates
Wolfinger’s analysis focused on the five-year divorce rates for women based on the decade they married and their number of premarital sexual partners.
For women who married in the 2000s, the findings showed a new pattern. Women with zero or one premarital partner had very low five-year divorce rates (around 20%). Women with two to nine partners had a similarly low divorce rate.
The surprise was the group with 10 or more partners. For women in this category who married in the 2000s, the five-year divorce rate was 33%, the highest of any group.
This creates a new “J-shaped” curve, where divorce risk is lowest for women with 0-9 partners and then rises sharply for those with 10 or more.
How the divorce risk pattern has changed over decades
This “J-shaped” curve is a significant change from previous generations. Wolfinger’s research highlights how the pattern has evolved over time. See also: Cheating risk often rises near year seven of marriage, then drops for women and can rise later for men.
The 1970s: A linear risk
For women who married in the 1970s, the pattern was simple and linear: more partners meant a higher risk of divorce. Women who married as virgins had the lowest divorce rate, and the risk steadily increased with each additional partner.
The 1980s-1990s: A ‘U-shaped’ curve
During the 1980s and 1990s, the pattern became a “U-shape.”
- 0-1 Partner: Women with zero or one partner had the lowest divorce rates.
- 2-9 Partners: Surprisingly, women with two partners had the highest divorce risk, even higher than those with 10 or more.
- 10+ Partners: This group had a high divorce rate, but it was slightly lower than the two-partner group.
During this time, having just one partner before a spouse (total of two) was the riskiest pattern, a finding that puzzled researchers.
The 2000s-2010s: The ‘J-shaped’ risk
The most recent data (for women married in the 2000s) shows the shift. The risk for the two-partner group has fallen, aligning with the 3-9 partner group. Now, the 10+ partner group stands alone as the highest-risk category.
Why is a high number of partners linked to divorce?
This research shows a correlation, not a direct cause. The study cannot prove that having more partners causes divorce. Wolfinger and other sociologists suggest a few theories for this link.
One idea is a “selection effect.” This theory suggests that individuals who have a high number of partners may be, on average, less suited to or less interested in the norms of monogamous marriage. Having many partners might also correlate with other traits, like a higher willingness to end a relationship that is not working.
Another possibility is that having a more complex relationship history can make a new marriage more challenging. Past breakups, comparisons to previous partners, or lingering emotional ties could potentially add stress to a marriage.
The expanding ‘low-risk’ group
A key part of the finding is not just the high risk for the 10+ group, but the low risk for everyone else. In the 1980s, only women with 0-1 partners were in the “safest” category.
Today, that category has expanded. The data shows that women with 0-1 partners and women with 2-9 partners have nearly identical, low divorce rates. This suggests that as premarital sex has become more socially accepted, the stigma or risk associated with having some experience before marriage has faded.
Sources & related information
Institute for Family Studies – Counterintuitive Trends in the Link Between Premarital Sex and Marital Stability – 2016
This is the original analysis by Nicholas H. Wolfinger, published by the Institute for Family Studies. It details the data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and presents the graphs showing how the divorce risk curve has changed across the decades. The report highlights the 33% five-year divorce rate for women with 10+ partners who married in the 2000s.
Psychology Today – Do Women With More Premarital Partners Get Divorced Less? – 2016
This article, which was the basis for this topic, discusses Wolfinger’s findings. It frames the research as a counterintuitive discovery, noting that the lowest divorce rate was found among those with three to nine partners, a change from past assumptions.
Slate – The More Sexual Partners a Woman Has, the More Likely She Is to Divorce – 2016
This news report provides a summary and context for Wolfinger’s study. It clearly states the main takeaway: “women who married in the 2000s and had 10 or more premarital sex partners had the highest five-year divorce rate.” It also explores the potential explanations for this correlation, including the selection effect.
0 Comments