If every American over the age of 40 matched the physical activity level of the most active 25% of the population, their average life expectancy could increase by five years. For those who are currently the least active, the potential gain is even larger, reaching nearly 11 years. A new life-table analysis published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine quantifies exactly how much extra time movement might buy, suggesting that lifestyle counts far more than genetics when it comes to longevity.
Moving as much as the top 25% adds 5 years on average
Researchers used 2013–2016 activity data from a national health survey and 2019 mortality records to model how different levels of movement affect lifespan. They found that the most active 25% of Americans over 40 accumulated roughly 160 minutes of normal-paced walking (at 4.8 km/h) every day.
The model showed that if the entire adult population over 40 matched this high level of activity, the average life expectancy at birth in the US would rise from 78.6 years to nearly 84 years. This suggests that a large portion of the population is losing years of life simply due to low levels of physical movement.
The least active people gain the most: up to 11 years
The gap is widest for people who currently move the least. The study estimates that if individuals in the bottom 25% of activity levels managed to match the top 25%, they could extend their life expectancy by 10.9 years.
This group currently performs very little exercise. To match the most active group, they would need to add about 111 minutes of walking per day. While this is a large increase, the potential return on investment is immense, effectively restoring a decade of lost life.
One hour of walking adds six hours of life for beginners
You do not need to reach the top tier to see benefits. The study found that every single hour of walking matters, especially for those starting from zero. For people in the least active group, every extra hour of walking added about 376 minutes—roughly six hours—to their life expectancy.
As people become more active, the extra gain per hour decreases, but it remains positive. On average across the whole population, an hour of exercise may add five or more hours to life, confirming that the most efficient way to improve health is to move from doing nothing to doing something.
Current activity levels in the US are low
The analysis highlights a public health crisis. Activity levels in the US are low compared to the top tier used in the model. The study implies that physical inactivity may reduce life expectancy almost as much as smoking or high blood pressure.
According to CNN, existing guidelines generally recommend 150 to 300 minutes of moderate activity per week. The top quartile in this study performed significantly more than that minimum, suggesting that the ceiling for health benefits is higher than the standard targets often cited.
Limitations & quality of evidence
This research is an observational modeling study. It uses statistical life tables to predict future outcomes based on past data. While it shows a strong association, it cannot prove that walking directly causes the extra years of life. Other factors like diet, wealth, and genetics also play a role, though researchers try to account for them.
Additionally, the study relies on accelerometer data which captures all movement, not just deliberate exercise. This means “160 minutes of walking” includes daily steps like walking to the car, cleaning, or moving around the office, not just gym time.
What you can do about it
This data suggests that prioritizing movement is one of the most powerful tools you have for longevity.
- Start small: If you are inactive, even a short daily walk yields the biggest relative gains.
- Track your movement: Use a phone or watch to see how close you are to the “active” benchmark.
- Integrate movement: Since the top group moves for over two hours a day, this volume is hard to reach with gym sessions alone. Try to build walking into your commute, work breaks, and chores.
- Check with a doctor: Before making a huge jump in activity, especially if you have health conditions, discuss a safe plan with a professional.
Sources & related information
British Journal of Sports Medicine – Physical activity and life expectancy: a life-table analysis – 2024
A modeling study estimating that matching the physical activity levels of the most active quartile could increase US life expectancy by 5.3 years.
CNN – Physical activity might add years to your life, study says – 2024
A report on the BJSM findings, noting that if the least active people became as active as the top quartile, they could potentially live nearly 11 years longer.
CDC – Benefits of Physical Activity – 2024
General public health guidance confirming that regular physical activity is essential for healthy aging and reducing chronic disease risk.
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