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Elon Musk predicts 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040

29 Oct 2024 | Robots | 0 comments

When people hear “humanoid robots by 2040”, many picture science fiction scenes. In late 2024, Elon Musk went further and said there could be at least 10 billion human shaped robots on Earth by that date, each costing about 20,000 to 25,000 US dollars. His claim points to a future where general purpose robots are as common as cars, phones, or even people.

This article explains what Musk actually said, what humanoid robots are today, what serious forecasts say about their growth, and how a world with millions or billions of such machines could change work and daily life.

Humanoid robots by 2040 in Elon Musk’s 10 billion claim

Musk’s statement and why 10 billion humanoid robots would be a huge leap from where robotics is today.

What exactly Musk said at the Riyadh conference

In October 2024, at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported that Elon Musk told the audience there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040, with a price in the range of 20,000 to 25,000 US dollars per unit.

He was speaking as the head of Tesla, which is developing its Optimus humanoid robot. Musk framed humanoid robots as a way to solve labour shortages and to build a future where many physical tasks are handled by machines rather than people.

The key point is that this number is a prediction, not a measured fact. No one can yet know how many humanoid robots will exist in 2040.

Why 10 billion humanoid robots would be a massive leap

To see how bold this vision is, it helps to compare it with present data. According to the International Federation of Robotics, there were around 4 million industrial robots working in factories worldwide in 2023, with a little over half a million new units installed that year.

Most of these machines are not humanoid. They are robot arms or special purpose systems that weld, paint, move boxes, or handle parts on assembly lines. Adding up all industrial robots and service robots, the world today likely has a number in the low millions of robots in total, not billions.

Going from a few million robots of all kinds to 10 billion humanoid robots in about 15 years would mean growth of several orders of magnitude. It would also mean that human shaped robots outnumber human beings, since the world population is expected to reach roughly 9 to 10 billion people around 2040.

So Musk’s statement should be read as a very optimistic scenario that pushes the limits of what might be possible, rather than a central forecast that other experts agree on.

How humanoid robots today differ from classic industrial machines

Humanoid robots are still rare, expensive prototypes compared with the many simpler robots already in use. What makes them different?

From factory robot arms to walking general purpose robots

For decades, robots in factories have been fixed machines that do one narrow task very well. A welding arm repeats the same motion thousands of times. A pick and place robot moves small parts quickly from one tray to another. These robots are powerful, but they are not flexible or human shaped.

A humanoid robot, by contrast, is built to look and move roughly like a person. It usually has a head with sensors, a torso, two arms with hands, and two legs with feet. The goal is not just to look human, but to fit into spaces, tools, and workflows designed for people.

These robots need advanced balance control, strong but light motors, and smart software that can plan movement in real time. They also need safe behaviour around humans. That makes them much harder to design than fixed factory robots.

Examples: Tesla Optimus, Figure 01, Digit and others

Several companies are racing to build practical humanoid robots:

  • Tesla is working on the Optimus robot, showing walking, lifting, and simple factory tasks in public demos. Musk sees Optimus as a future product that could work first inside Tesla plants and later in other places.
  • Figure AI has built a robot called Figure 01, aiming at warehouse and industrial work. The company has shown the robot walking, handling packages, and manipulating tools.
  • Agility Robotics has a biped robot named Digit, designed to move boxes and handle logistics work in warehouses, and has started pilot programs with large retailers.
  • In China, companies like UBTECH and Unitree are building both humanoid and four legged robots and are expected to ship tens of thousands of units in the coming years.

All these systems are still in early stages. They can walk and do some tasks, but they are far from the science fiction picture of robots that can do any job a person can. They also cost much more than a car, and often require skilled teams to set up and monitor them.

Earlier pieces on AI wearables like Humane’s Ai Pin and on AI tools that enable humans to talk with whales show a similar pattern: impressive demos, real progress, but also strong limits compared with the hopes and marketing.

Market forecasts for humanoid robots versus Musk’s vision

Realistic market studies see fast growth for humanoid robots, but usually predict far fewer than 10 billion units this century.

What banks and analysts expect by 2040 and 2050

Banks and research firms have started to publish reports on humanoid robots as a new asset class.

These numbers are still huge. Even 1 billion humanoid robots would be a profound change in how work and care are organized. But they are well below Musk’s figure of 10 billion by 2040.

Why predictions range from millions to billions of robots

Forecasts differ because they rely on assumptions about several uncertain points:

  • How quickly hardware will get cheaper, such as motors, batteries, and sensors.
  • How far AI will advance in planning, movement, and safe behavior.
  • How governments will regulate robots in workplaces, public spaces, and homes.
  • How much trust companies and the public will have in robots working around people.

If hardware costs fall sharply and AI improves faster than expected, adoption could speed up. If safety incidents, legal limits, or public resistance slow things down, the real number could be much lower.

Musk’s vision assumes very fast cost drops, a smooth regulatory path, and strong demand across almost every sector. More cautious forecasts factor in delays and setbacks.

How billions of humanoid robots could change work and daily life

Even if the world ends up with millions rather than billions of humanoid robots, their spread would still reshape many jobs and services.

Jobs they might do in factories, care, and services

In factories and warehouses, humanoid robots could take over tasks that are now hard to automate because they happen in spaces built for people. They could walk between shelves, climb stairs, and use existing tools and machines.

In care and health, humanoid robots might help move patients, deliver supplies, or support people who have trouble walking or lifting. In shops and hotels, they could handle cleaning, carrying luggage, or basic customer service.

In homes, simple humanoid robots might help with heavy housework like carrying laundry, moving furniture, or helping older adults with daily tasks. This would not remove all jobs, but it would change the mix of tasks humans do.

Risks, safety rules and social questions

A world with many humanoid robots raises hard questions:

  • Safety: How do we make sure a heavy machine moving on legs does not injure people by mistake?
  • Jobs: Which roles will disappear, which will change, and which new jobs will appear around designing, maintaining, and supervising robots?
  • Rights and dignity: How do we treat people who receive care from machines? Do they have a say in where and when robots are used?
  • Inequality: Will rich countries and companies get most of the benefits, while others fall behind?

Policymakers and companies are already discussing rules for AI and robotics. Clear guardrails will be needed if humanoid robots become common in public spaces, hospitals, and homes.

Technical, economic and ethical limits on 10 billion humanoid robots

To reach billions of humanoid robots, not just thousands, the world would need to solve problems in engineering, economics, and ethics.

Hardware and energy challenges

Humanoid robots need strong, precise motors in every joint, high capacity batteries, and many sensors. All of that uses metals, rare earth elements, and energy.

Mass producing 10 billion such robots would demand enormous supply chains and energy use. It could strain existing mining and manufacturing systems and raise environmental concerns. Engineers will need to design robots that are efficient, easy to repair, and easy to recycle at the end of their life.

Cost, regulation and public acceptance

Musk’s suggested price of 20,000 to 25,000 US dollars per humanoid robot is in the range of a mid priced car. To reach that level, production must scale up and designs must be simplified.

Regulation is another limit. Governments may not allow humanoid robots in certain roles, such as direct physical care of vulnerable people, until there is clear proof of safety. They may also set rules on data use, so that robots cannot record and share everything they see.

Finally, public acceptance matters. People may reject robots in some spaces, just as they sometimes reject new buildings or infrastructure. Trust will grow only if early deployments are transparent, safe, and clearly helpful.

Sources & related information

Reuters – Elon Musk: 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040 at $20K-$25K each – 2024

Reuters reported from the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh that Elon Musk predicted there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040, each costing about 20,000 to 25,000 US dollars, giving the main news hook for this article. The report is available at this Reuters technology story.

International Federation of Robotics – Record of 4 million robots in factories worldwide – 2024

The International Federation of Robotics publishes yearly data on the number of industrial robots in use. Its World Robotics 2024 report notes a record stock of around 4 million robots working in factories in 2023 and more than half a million new units installed that year, helping us compare Musk’s future numbers with present reality. You can read about it on the IFR press release on record robot numbers.

World Economic Forum – Humanoid robots offer disruption and promise. Here’s why – 2025

A World Economic Forum article explains how humanoid robots could spread across sectors like healthcare, public space maintenance, retail, and personal assistance, and notes that some analysts expect billions of humanoids operating by 2040. It also stresses the need for clear rules and safety standards as physical AI spreads. The piece is available on the World Economic Forum website.

Morgan Stanley – Humanoids: A 5 Trillion Dollar Market – 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts describe humanoid robots as a long term market that could exceed 5 trillion US dollars by 2050, with around 1 billion humanoid units in use, most in industrial and commercial roles. This more cautious forecast helps place Musk’s 10 billion figure in the wider range of expectations. The report is discussed in Morgan Stanley’s insight article on the humanoid robot market.

MarketWatch – 300 million humanoid robots are coming – 2025

MarketWatch reports on a UBS analysis that foresees up to hundreds of millions of humanoid robots in the workforce by 2050 and a market worth hundreds of billions to more than a trillion US dollars, depending on adoption speed. This source supports the idea that major financial institutions see large but not unlimited growth. You can find it in MarketWatch’s coverage of the UBS humanoid robot forecast.

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Listening is the underrated skill that makes you a better leader instantly

25 Nov 2025 | ,

We often think of great leaders as great talkers. We imagine them giving rousing speeches, setting a clear vision, and having an answer for everything. But a massive review of scientific research suggests we have it backward. The most effective way to improve your leadership isn’t to speak more; it is to listen better.

New data shows that listening is not just a “soft skill” for making friends – it is a hard driver of job performance and professional success.

144 studies confirm listening drives performance

A recent meta-analysis published in the Journal of Business and Psychology examined the link between listening and work outcomes. The researchers looked at data from 144 studies involving more than 155,000 people.

Their conclusion was clear: listening has a strong, positive effect on employee job performance.

Leaders who are perceived as good listeners do more than just make their employees feel warm and fuzzy. They actually get better results. The study found that listening improves the quality of relationships at work, which in turn boosts performance. When employees feel heard, they perform better. This dynamic helps leaders unlearn bias and lower conflict within teams.

As the researchers noted, the link between listening and positive job outcomes is “robust.” They suggest that listening is an underrated predictor of job performance – a simple cause of superior results that many organizations overlook.

Why we love to talk about ourselves

If listening is so effective, why is it so hard? Why do so many of us default to talking instead?

The answer lies in our biology. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that talking about ourselves is inherently rewarding. In fact, humans devote about 30–40 percent of everyday speech to informing others about their own subjective experiences – their thoughts, feelings, and opinions.

Using brain scans, researchers found that self-disclosure activates the mesolimbic dopamine system – the same brain regions associated with the pleasure we get from food, money, and sex. It feels good to talk about yourself.

The drive is so strong that people in the study were willing to give up money just to keep talking about themselves. When given a choice between answering questions about others for a higher payment or answering questions about themselves for a lower payment, participants voluntarily gave up between 17 and 25 percent of their potential earnings to talk about their own views.

We are wired to broadcast. To lead effectively, you have to fight that wiring.

The power of follow-up questions

You can become a better listener instantly by changing how you ask questions. It is not enough to just stay silent; you need to show you are engaged.

Research published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found that the specific type of question you ask matters. The study showed that asking follow-up questions – questions that ask for more detail on what the other person just said – dramatically increases how likable you appear.

When you ask a follow-up question, you prove you were listening. You signal validation, care, and understanding. This simple habit makes you more persuasive and influential because, as other research in Frontiers in Psychology shows, likable people are better at influencing those around them.

Asking follow-up questions and recalling small details are among seven habits that mark an exceptional listener, and this research confirms it is a key tool for leaders.

Feeling known leads to feeling supported

Listening does more than build rapport; it meets a fundamental human need.

A study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found that employees feel less objectified when their boss knows them as people, rather than just as workers or numbers. Furthermore, research linked to the Journal of Experimental Psychology suggests that “feeling known” is a necessary precursor to “feeling supported.”

You cannot support an employee you do not know. You cannot help them reach their career goals if you never asked what those goals were. You cannot solve their roadblocks if you never listened to what those roadblocks are.

What you can do about it

To become a better leader today, flip the ratio of your conversations.

  • Talk less. Recognize that your brain wants the dopamine hit of talking about yourself. Resist it.
  • Ask for their story, not yours. Instead of telling your team about your weekend or your problems, ask about theirs.
  • Use the follow-up rule. When an employee answers, do not just nod and move on. Restate what they said or ask one follow-up question based on what they just said.
  • Listen to learn. You already know what you know. The only way to learn something new is to listen to what others know.

Mastering conversation: how active listening keeps dialogue engaging is a skill you can practice in every interaction, whether with a colleague, a client, or a friend.

Sources & related information

Journal of Business and Psychology – The Power of Listening at Work – 2023

A meta-analysis of 144 studies involving 155,000 observations found that perceived listening is strongly correlated with improved job performance and relationship quality.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences – Disclosing information about the self is intrinsically rewarding – 2012

Neuroimaging research shows that self-disclosure activates the brain’s reward systems, motivating people to talk about themselves even at a financial cost.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology – It Doesn’t Hurt to Ask – 2017

A series of studies demonstrates that asking follow-up questions increases interpersonal liking by signaling responsiveness and listening.

The Pratfall Effect: why making mistakes can make you more likable

23 Nov 2025 | ,

Perfection is often overrated. While we strive to be flawless in job interviews or first dates, psychology suggests that being too perfect can actually push people away. A small blunder, like tripping or spilling a drink, might do more for your popularity than a flawless performance. This phenomenon is known as the Pratfall Effect.

What is the Pratfall Effect?

The Pratfall Effect is a psychological principle that states that a person’s likability increases when they make a clumsy mistake, but only if that person is already perceived as competent.

Social psychologist Elliot Aronson first identified this effect in 1966. He wanted to test how mistakes influence attraction. In his famous experiment, he asked male college students to listen to tape recordings of people answering quiz questions.

The participants heard one of two main scenarios:

  1. The Superior Person: This person answered 92% of the questions correctly. They sounded confident and knowledgeable.
  2. The Average Person: This person answered only 30% of the questions correctly.

Aronson then added a twist. In some recordings, the “Superior Person” commits a blunder at the end: they are heard spilling a cup of coffee and reacting to the mess.

The results were clear. The students rated the Superior Person who spilled the coffee as the most likable of all. The blunder made the highly competent person seem more human and approachable.

The catch: competence is key

There is a crucial condition to this effect. A mistake only helps you if you have already established your competence.

In Aronson’s experiment, when the “Average Person” (who missed most quiz questions) spilled the coffee, their likability rating dropped even further.

  • If you are competent: A mistake humanizes you. It breaks the “too good to be true” barrier and prevents others from feeling threatened by your perfection.
  • If you are incompetent: A mistake just reinforces the idea that you are not capable. It acts as proof of inadequacy.

This distinction is vital. You cannot simply be clumsy and expect to be popular. You must first demonstrate that you are good at what you do. The blunder acts as a softener for your competence, not a substitute for it.

Real-world examples: from Jennifer Lawrence to brands

We see the Pratfall Effect in action in celebrity culture and marketing.

The relatable celebrity

Jennifer Lawrence is often cited as a modern example. Her frequent trips on the red carpet or candid, unpolished interviews often endear her to the public. Because she is an Oscar-winning, highly successful actress (high competence), these slips make her seem “down to earth” rather than clumsy.

The honest brand

Marketing experts use a similar concept known as the “blemishing effect.” When a brand admits a small flaw, consumers often trust it more. For example, Guinness: the beer brand famously turned a negative – the long time it takes to pour a pint – into a legendary slogan: “Good things come to those who wait.”

Why perfectionism harms connection

The Pratfall Effect challenges the idea that we must hide our flaws to be accepted. In social situations, perfection creates distance. We often struggle to connect with someone who seems to have no weaknesses because we cannot relate to them. This relates to understanding conversational biases to become more likable, where showing genuine engagement often matters more than saying the perfect thing.

When a competent person slips up, it levels the playing field. It signals vulnerability. This vulnerability fosters trust and signals that the person is authentic, not a curated persona.

What you can do about it

You do not need to stage accidents or spill coffee on purpose. However, you can change how you react to your own errors.

  • Don’t hide every flaw: If you are good at your job, admitting a small error or a gap in knowledge can make you more approachable to your team.
  • Own your blunders: When you trip or misspeak, laugh it off. Trying to cover it up often looks worse than the mistake itself.
  • Build competence first: Remember that this effect relies on a foundation of skill. Focus on being capable and reliable first.
  • Accept imperfection in others: Just as your mistakes humanize you, seeing others stumble is a reminder that everyone is human. This perspective can help reduce judgment and social anxiety.

Sources & related information

Elliot Aronson – The Effect of a Pratfall on Increasing Interpersonal Attractiveness – 1966

The original study published in Psychonomic Science where Aronson and his colleagues demonstrated that a blunder increases the attractiveness of a superior person but decreases the attractiveness of a mediocre person.

The Guardian (ZenithOptimedia) – The Pratfall effect and why brands should flaunt their flaws – 2015

An analysis of how brands like Guinness and VW use the Pratfall Effect to build trust by admitting minor weaknesses, making their core claims more believable.

Journal of Consumer Research – The blemishing effect – 2012

Research showing that under certain processing conditions, a small amount of negative information can actually enhance the positive impression of a product.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=traKGc2NDWQ

Endmyopia claims to reverse nearsightedness naturally (but science remains skeptical)

23 Nov 2025 |

Imagine never needing your glasses again. No surgery, no contacts, just… fixing your eyes yourself. That’s the big promise of Endmyopia, a popular online method created by Jake Steiner. He claims you can reverse nearsightedness (myopia) just by changing your habits.

It sounds awesome, right? But before you throw away your glasses, you need to know that most eye doctors and scientists say it’s not that simple. Here is the lowdown on what this method is, why people try it, and why the medical consensus says it probably won’t work like you think.

The big claim: “Your glasses are the problem”

Endmyopia is based on a simple idea: your eyes aren’t broken; they are just reacting to your environment.

It starts with a muscle cramp

The theory goes like this: when you spend hours staring at your phone or laptop, a focusing muscle inside your eye gets tired and cramps up. This is called pseudo-myopia. At first, your vision is only blurry because of this cramp.

Then your eye grows longer

The controversial part is what happens next. Steiner says that when you wear glasses to fix that blur, your eye physically grows longer to “adapt” to the lenses. A longer eyeball is what causes true nearsightedness. Basically, the method claims your glasses trap you in a cycle that makes your vision worse.

The “fix”: training your eyes

To reverse this, Endmyopia tells you to do two things:

  1. Use weaker glasses: Instead of your full prescription, you wear weaker glasses for close-up work (like homework or gaming) to stop the eye strain.
  2. Practice “Active Focus”: This is a mental trick. You look at something far away that is slightly blurry (like a street sign) and try hard to make it clear just by focusing. The idea is that this effort forces your eyeball to shrink back to its normal size.

What science says

Here is the problem: Eye doctors agree that once your eyeball grows too long, it usually stays that way. It’s like your height – once you grow tall, you don’t shrink back down just because you want to.

Your eyeballs aren’t like muscles

You can train a muscle to get bigger, but you can’t really train an eyeball to get shorter. While atropine drops or special contact lenses can slow down eye growth in kids, there is no scientific proof that you can reverse it significantly once it’s happened.

Wearing weak glasses might backfire

Trying to fix your eyes by wearing weaker glasses can actually make things worse. A famous study (Chung et al., 2002) showed that under-correcting vision (wearing glasses that are too weak) made kids’ eyes grow faster, not slower. Blurry vision seems to signal the eye to keep growing, which is the exact opposite of what you want.

Why do some people swear it works?

If science says it doesn’t work, why are there so many success stories online? Read on Reddit: I was able to effectively fully cure myopia with my own methodology of eye exercises and discussions about do eye exercise really work?.

Brain training vs. Eye shrinking

When you practice looking at blurry things, your brain gets smarter at guessing what it’s seeing. This is called blur adaptation. You might be able to read a sign further away, not because your eyes are fixed, but because your brain is better at decoding the fuzzy image. You are “seeing” better, but your nearsightedness hasn’t actually disappeared.

Is there any hope?

Interestingly, some new research on red light therapy shows that specific light treatments might slightly shorten the eye.

Is it worth trying?

Trying to fix your eyes this way takes a huge amount of time – years of daily practice. Walking around (or driving!) with blurry vision can be dangerous.

Sources & related information

Study: Weak glasses make eyes worse (2002)

A major study showed that giving kids weaker glasses actually made their nearsightedness get worse faster.

Experts: Can you reverse myopia?

Eye doctors explain that while eye spasms can be fixed, the actual shape of a nearsighted eye is permanent.

Endmyopia Website

The source of the “active focus” method and the theory that glasses are to blame.

Red Light Therapy Study (2022)

A study showing that a specific type of red light therapy could shrink the eye slightly, proving some change is possible.